Why Gulf Nations Are Betting Big on India as the Superpower of Tomorrow
Something significant was said on 20 March 2026 — and it deserves far more attention than it may initially receive. Daniel Benaim, a former senior US official who served as deputy assistant Secretary of State for the Arabian Peninsula under President Joe Biden, made a striking observation in an exclusive conversation with ANI. Speaking just three weeks into the ongoing conflict in West Asia, Benaim stated plainly that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states view India not merely as a source of labour or a recipient of capital — but as a future superpower and a major arbiter of 21st-century life. That is a statement worth pausing on.
Who Is Daniel Benaim — and Why Does His Opinion Matter?
Daniel Benaim is not an armchair commentator. He is a recognised expert on the Arabian Peninsula who previously served as the Middle East policy adviser at the White House and as a foreign policy speechwriter for President Biden himself. His insight into how Gulf nations think — what they want, who they trust, and where they are placing their long-term bets — is rooted in years of direct diplomatic engagement. When a man of this calibre and background says the Gulf sees India as a future superpower, it carries the weight of first-hand knowledge rather than speculation.
The Exact Words That Changed the Conversation
Benaim's words to ANI were direct and unambiguous. He stated that having heard from just about all the GCC states, it is “pretty clear that they see India as a future superpower, not just as a sort of place to receive labour and send capital, but as a major arbiter of 21st-century life.” He went further, adding that this shift is already underway — “If not immediately, then certainly over time. That’s the direction of traffic. They all see it. They all admire it.” These are not the words of polite diplomatic courtesy. This is a frank assessment from someone who sat in rooms where these conversations happened.
From Labour Exporter to Strategic Partner: India's Transformation in Gulf Eyes
For decades, the dominant narrative around India and the Gulf was straightforward: millions of Indian workers travelled to Gulf nations for employment, sending remittances back home, while Gulf capital flowed into Indian markets. That was the transactional heart of the relationship. But what Benaim is describing is something far more evolved. The Gulf states are no longer looking at India through that narrow economic lens alone. They are beginning to see New Delhi as a strategic power — a nation with the demographic strength, economic momentum, technological ambition, and diplomatic finesse to shape the world order of the coming decades. A vivid illustration of this shift is India's recent strategic win as Iran granted New Delhi a significant concession, a development that underlines just how seriously regional powers are now taking India's position in the Middle East.
The Modi–MBZ Bond: A Relationship That Symbolises Shifting Alliances
Benaim specifically pointed to the exceptionally close relationship between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (commonly referred to as MBZ) as a telling symbol of this new dynamic. The two leaders have cultivated one of the warmest bilateral relationships in current world diplomacy, meeting frequently and overseeing a dramatic expansion of India–UAE ties across trade, investment, culture, and security. Benaim cited this bond as evidence of how Gulf nations are determined to build “big, broad, strategic” ties with India — a phrase that signals something qualitatively different from the transactional partnerships of the past.
The Oman Deal: Quiet Diplomacy, Loud Implications
Benaim also referenced India's deal with Oman as another concrete example of this growing strategic alignment. Oman, which sits at a geographically vital position along the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, has long been a quiet but influential player in Gulf diplomacy. An India–Oman agreement — particularly one with security and connectivity dimensions — reflects exactly the kind of “arbiter” role that Benaim describes. India is not just a trading partner for these nations; it is becoming a trusted anchor in a region that is increasingly uncertain about American reliability and engagement.
Saudi Arabia's Calculated Bet: Compartmentalising Pakistan, Prioritising India
One of the most nuanced — and frankly remarkable — aspects of Benaim's assessment concerns Saudi Arabia. He acknowledged that Riyadh continues to factor in its relationship with Pakistan, particularly on security matters. However, he made it clear that the Saudis are “determined to compartmentalise” that part of their relationship from the broader, more ambitious strategic ties they are building with India. This is a significant observation. It suggests that Saudi Arabia has made a deliberate calculation: whatever its historical, religious, and security ties with Pakistan, those will not be allowed to limit or interfere with the depth of the Saudi–India partnership it envisions for the future.
India as a Peacemaker: The West Asia Conflict Context
Benaim's comments were made against the backdrop of an escalating conflict in West Asia, where the security situation between the US-Israel axis and Iran has deteriorated sharply. Iran has attacked several energy infrastructure sites across the Gulf region in retaliation for Israeli strikes on its gas facilities. It is within this volatile context that analysts have pointed to India — and particularly PM Modi — as a leader capable of supporting de-escalation. As we have covered in detail previously, PM Modi's masterstroke diplomacy during the US–Iran conflict has drawn global attention and established India as a rare credible voice that both sides are willing to hear. India's unique position of maintaining active channels of communication with both Israel and Iran, while holding close ties with Gulf Arab states, makes New Delhi a diplomatic bridge in a region where most powers are firmly on one side or the other.
The Indian Diaspora: A Living Bridge Across the Gulf
A crucial element underpinning India's growing influence in the Gulf is its enormous diaspora. Millions of Indians live and work across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar. They contribute enormously to the economies of their host nations whilst remaining deeply connected to India. This diaspora is not merely a workforce — it is a soft-power asset of extraordinary value. Gulf governments are acutely aware that their social fabric, their infrastructure, and their services are deeply intertwined with the Indian community. That gives India a form of quiet leverage that no formal treaty alone could replicate.
Strategic Autonomy: India's Biggest Diplomatic Asset
What makes India genuinely distinctive in the eyes of Gulf nations is its long-held doctrine of strategic autonomy. Unlike most major powers, India does not belong to any military alliance. It is not a member of NATO. It is not a formal ally of the United States, Russia, or China. This independence is not weakness — in the eyes of many Gulf states, it is India's greatest strength. A nation that can speak to Washington and Moscow, to Tehran and Tel Aviv, to Riyadh and Islamabad — however imperfectly — is a nation that can play a mediating role that others simply cannot. This is precisely why, as Finland recently recognised, world leaders are urging India to step up its mediation role in global crises. The Gulf states recognise India's irreplaceable position, and it is one of the core reasons they are elevating New Delhi in their strategic thinking.
Economic Gravity: India's Rise Is Already Reshaping Trade Flows
India's economic trajectory cannot be separated from the Gulf's growing admiration. As the fifth-largest economy in the world and projected to become the third-largest within this decade, India represents one of the most significant growth stories of the 21st century. Gulf sovereign wealth funds, from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority to the Saudi Public Investment Fund, have been steadily increasing their exposure to Indian markets, recognising that India's consumption growth, digital economy, and manufacturing expansion offer returns that are increasingly hard to find elsewhere. What was once a flow of oil money to India is now evolving into a more reciprocal relationship of capital, technology, and partnership.
PM Modi's Bahrain Engagement: Condemnation of Strikes, a Signal of Relevance
Adding further weight to Benaim's assessment is a development that occurred on the very same day as his interview. PM Modi and the King of Bahrain jointly condemned strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure in West Asia. The fact that India's head of government is actively engaging with Gulf monarchs on the live conflict — issuing joint condemnations, signalling shared concern — is itself a mark of how embedded India now is in the security and political discourse of the region. This is not the behaviour of a country that the Gulf simply “does business with.” This is the behaviour of a country that the Gulf is beginning to treat as a consequential stakeholder in regional stability.
What This Means for India's Place in the New World Order
The cumulative picture that emerges from Benaim's remarks — and from the broader context of India's diplomatic activity across the Gulf — is that India is undergoing a quiet but profound elevation in global status. It is not being handed this status. It is earning it, through consistent diplomatic engagement, through economic growth that commands respect, through a diaspora that serves as a living ambassador, and through a foreign policy posture that gives it room to manoeuvre where others cannot. The Gulf states are among the first to recognise this new reality clearly. If history is any guide, where the Gulf bets, others tend to follow.
Conclusion: The Direction of Traffic Is Unmistakably Towards India
Daniel Benaim used a phrase that should stay with us: “That’s the direction of traffic.” In diplomacy, that expression matters enormously. It tells you not just where things stand today, but where they are inevitably heading. The Gulf states — rich, strategically vital, globally connected — are redirecting their long-term trust and partnership towards India. They admire its resilience, its scale, its independence, and its leadership. As the West Asia conflict rages and old alliances are tested, India stands in an increasingly rare position: trusted by many, allied to none in the traditional sense, and capable of playing a role that no other nation currently can. The superpower status the Gulf already envisions for India may not be officially declared yet — but the direction of traffic, as Benaim says, is unmistakable.
Source & AI Information: External links in this article are provided for informational reference to authoritative sources. This content was drafted with the assistance of Artificial Intelligence tools to ensure comprehensive coverage, and subsequently reviewed by a human editor prior to publication.
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